U.S. College Costs: Where Are They Heading?
U.S. college costs continue to rise, but recent trends suggest the rate may be cooling. See what that could mean for your education savings and long-term financial plan.
The cost of a college education is often one of the largest financial goals parents plan for. The sticker shock of tuition, room and board, and other fees can leave parents wondering how much college will cost by the time their children enroll—and how they'll pay for it.
So, what should families expect college to cost by the time today's students enroll?
Before adjusting for Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation, college costs have certainly continued to rise. After adjusting for inflation, however, the picture looks quite different. Relative to other goods and services, the cost of college has increased much more slowly over the past decade—and in some cases has even declined.
The chart below illustrates how college costs have changed during the last three decades:
Ten-Year Percentage Changes in Inflation
Adjusted Published Prices by Decade 1995/96 to 2025/26
Source: College Board, Annual Survey of Colleges; NCES, IPEDS Fall Enrollment data.
Each bar in the figure above shows the percentage change in published prices in inflation-adjusted dollars over a 10-year period. For example, from 2015-16 to 2025-26, average published tuition and fees at private nonprofit four-year colleges increased by 2% beyond increases in the CPI. Average tuition and fee prices reflect in-district charges for public two-year institutions and in-state charges for public four-year institutions.
CPI data from the period between 1995 and 2015 showed that college cost increases significantly outpaced inflation across all institution types. Over the last 10 years, however, college costs have mostly decreased in inflation-adjusted terms, with the largest decline happening at public institutions. Such costs vary significantly by state, so the location of desired colleges should be considered when planning for these costs.
Don’t Overlook Sources of Financial Aid
With grant and institutional financial aid becoming more common at public and private institutions, the out-of-pocket costs for many undergraduate students over the last decade have grown at even lower rates than the CPI data suggests.
According to the College Board’s Trends in College Pricing and Student Aid 2022 report, grant aid per student since 2006 has increased 133% at four-year public institutions, and 88% at four-year private institutions, after adjusting for inflation. The number of students receiving such aid has increased by approximately 10% at four-year private institutions and 30% at four-year public institutions since 2006.
Costs Not Likely to Significantly Outpace Inflation
Taken together, the recent moderation in costs along with slowing enrollment rates suggest we do not expect college costs to rise significantly faster than long-term inflation going forward.
At Corient, we continually re-evaluate our planning assumptions to help ensure that your wealth plan reflects the most current research and our best thinking. If you feel it’s time to revisit your child’s college savings plan or to put a new plan in place, please reach out to your Corient Wealth Advisor to get the conversation started.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Brian Hebert
Brian joined Dowling & Yahnke Wealth Advisors in 2021. As the Associate Financial Planner, he assists with the designing of customized, personal financial plans and tax planning. Brian holds the Certified Public Accountant (CPA) and CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ (CFP®) certifications. He graduated from San Diego State University with a Bachelor of Science in Accounting. Brian has ten years of experience in public accounting. He has performed audits, reviews, and compilations for public and private companies in various industries including biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, manufacturing, and employee benefit plans. Brian is a California native. Having grown up in Northern California, he moved to San Diego in 1995. He's a proud member of CalCPA.
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US 5735110 – July 2026
